Clearwire Pulling Back On Its Seattle-area Deployment?

(This article was originally posted on Broadband Wireless Internet Access / WiMAX News blog, permalink  www.bwianews.com/2005/12/clearwire_pulli.html.)

I've gotten some hints that Clearwire is delaying its plans to offer Broadband Wireless Internet Access service in the greater Seattle area. If true, bummer... ever since I read that Clearwire was lining up tower permits here, I've been looking forward to subscribing, once again, to Broadband Wireless Internet Access service at my home in Woodinville, Washington. (OK, technically, I'm doing so already.)

Here are some guesses - only guesses - not even informed speculation, as to why Clearwire might be pulling back, for now, on deploying service in the Seattle area:

• Sooner or later Clearwire is going to have to do more than pay lip service to deploying WiMAX systems given Intel's investment in Clearwire in late 2004. The WiMAX industry is now in turmoil because of the just-approved 802.16"e" standard for Mobile / Portable (depending on whose definition you choose) Broadband Wireless Internet Access interoperability, which now needs to be developed into WiMAX interoperability profiles. That means more months of delay, say mid-2006, and then actual WiMAX Forum interoperability testing of "WiMAX Mobile" (another six months, say EOY 2006. While the WiMAX partisans claim that 802.16"e" does provide compatibility with 802.16-2004 (the current official 802.16 standard) / "Fixed" WiMAX... no one will really know about such interoperability until there is enough gear on the market to provide some real world feedback. Not to mention that the WiMAX industry is now waiting for the Qualcomm "patent hammer" to fall in the aftermath of their acquisition of Flarion Technologies and their rich patent portfolio related to OFDM, the key technology of WiMAX. NextNet Wireless, Clearwire's sole-source equipment supplier hasn't offered any public direction about their plans to offer WiMAX-compatible systems. I guess that if I were Clearwire and contemplating such a high-profile deployment in such as "wireless-hip" urban area such as the Seattle area and needed to do WiMAX... I'd probably hesitate too.
  
• The competition (though they deign to be classified as having any real competition for "full mobility Broadband Internet Access") from the wireless telephony companies isn't exactly standing still. The Seattle area is one of the few US urban markets where Clearwire will deploy services. Comcast's cable modems can now do 6 Mbps, and comparitively-pokey DSL from Verizon (Eastside and North) and Qwest (Seattle and environs) might get a bit more interesting now that Verizon Communications has announced plans to deploy its FIOS Fiber-To-The-Premises (FTTP) Broadband Internet Access service in Washington. In comparison, Clearwire service at 1.5 Mbps maximum isn't that compelling.
  
• The City Of Seattle periodically makes noises that it's possibly interested in deploying a city-backed Wi-Fi system like many other cities are doing. Competing with Wi-Fi is like competing with Free; pretty tough when you're selling (or leasing - hah...) a proprietary radio that very much is not Wi-Fi. (It's true that consumers sometimes don't know technology, but they do know branding, and they've been imprinted to look for Wi-Fi and even 802.11g in preference to 802.11b; Thank Intel.)
  
• Sprint/Nextel has, or at least had, leases on 2.5 GHz spectrum in the Seattle area. As a condition of the merger, the companies had to pledge to make some use of their combined 2.5 GHz spectrum (imagine that conversation at the FCC - "Sprint and Nextel, do you solemnly swear to deploy services in your 2.5 GHz spectrum, for better or for worse...") Perhaps Sprint/Nextel is planning to turn on some old gear on the top of the Bank Of America Building (just renamed to something else) like they've recently done in existing markets for their old mothballed-until-just-recently Broadband Direct service.
  
• MetroFi just might come to town! 1 Mbps "just move the bits" service for $20/month - that's compelling Broadband Wireless Internet Access! C'mon folks - quit beating heads with Google and c'mon up to the Seattle area! (OK, wishful thinking on my part for this one; branching so far out of the comfortable environs of Silicon Valley is probably a bit too far, too fast for MetroFi.)
  
• Bellevue (no longer Woodinville - sniff)-based AccelNet is becoming a force to be reckoned with in the Seattle metro area for Broadband Wireless Internet Access (mostly for business-grade service), as may Speakeasy (how much better a symbol for "Tower #1" can you get than the Seattle Space Needle?)
  
• Heck... I just received notice that WildBlue is now taking orders for its Satellite Broadband Internet Access service in the Redmond, Washington area - like Clearwire "up to" 1.5 Mbps (yes, there are latency issues - can't beat the physics of a 44,600 mile trip from the user to the Internet, and then back) for prices "as low as" $50/month.
  
• A "bigger picture" issue is that eighteen months after Clearwire uncloaked from stealth mode, they still haven't (to my knowledge) offered telephone service. Why they haven't is puzzling; offering telephone service via NextNet Wireless systems is very well-established by the large deployment by MVS Comunicaciones in Mexico. When I "outed" Clearwire in my newsletter a few months before their public unveiling, I speculated that a bundled telephone service offering would have to eventually be part of Clearwire's offering to be compelling and profitable.
  
• One thing about Clearwire's plans that wasn't apparent until quite some time after its public unveiling was the extent to which they would be offering Clearwire service in non-US markets. Doing so has got to suck up an enormous amount of resources.
  
• Then again, it could be something far more mundane, like devoting scarce resources (even in such a well-funded startup) to areas where it can offer a compelling advantage, like Friday Harbor, Washington on incredibly picturesque San Juan Island in Puget Sound.
  

By Steve Stroh

This article is Copyright © 2005, 2007 by Steve Stroh. Excerpts and links are expressly permitted (and encouraged.)

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