I'm a fan of Martyn Geddes'
Telepocalypse and recommend it to BWIA readers. It's one of the few links on the right sidebar that isn't specifically related to BWIA. A few of Geddes' most recent postings trigged several thoughts, one of which is how Nokia could quickly regain its former prominence and dominance.
One of Geddes' most troubling thoughts is PC Phone Home, positing a nightmare scenario where telephony services are subjected to the same infections, security holes, takeovers, etc. as computing devices based on Microsoft technology. Gulp! Geddes also points out that if we do migrate to an "all wireless", likely mesh, communications system (as I think likely, simply because it's improving more rapidly and is generally more cost-effective than wireline alternatives), we're going to use even more electrical power from the power grid to power all those transmitters. Lastly, he offeres a few thoughts about Nokia regaining its dominance.
Read on for my take on those issues, including how Nokia can take back its lead and regain its former glory.
One of the benefits of wireless mesh networking is that it is localized. There's no need to "transmit far" when you can route your packets via another node that's near. If you're transmitting to someone near, then your transmitted power can be lower, allowing more intensive frequency reuse. Assume that we do develop a wireless mesh network system that handles Internet and voice, and it becomes the dominant method of connectivity for the average household. One would put up a small outdoor radio/antenna combination on a pole or the side of the house that connects directly to the neighbors, and that each such node is not only an end point to provide services to and from that household, but also a relay (classic mesh).
If such a system was architected right... each user of such a system has gained localized communications; in short, the Internet going offline in the next city due to a tunnel fire taking out all the fiber lines isn't going to affect your ability to call or email your neighbors... or their neighbors... or likely anyone in your immediate area.
Here's an example. A neighbor of mine is close enough to our house that we could throw rocks and hit one his walls to get his attention (hope Bill N. isn't reading this...). But if I want to call that neigbor on the telephone... my call is routed over many miles of copper, digitized at the remote office, and transported as ATM or frame relay packets to a Central Office (CO) even more miles away. (This scenario is even more ludicrous if I call this neighbor using a cellular phone; the transmissions from my phone are not only reaching the nearest cellular tower... they're penetrating right into his house!) Back to wireline phone again, assuming that the analog signals and the ATM packets do make this journey successfully (that's a lot of miles), only then will the call be completed and I can have my conversation with the neighbor instead of having to throw rocks at his house to get his attention.
With a wireless mesh system that carries Internet and VOIP telephony, when I want to talk to the neighbor, the communication is isolated to being entirely local; Bill's node transmits, mine hears it, and the two commence communicating. The packets flying between the two of us aren't intended for the other neighbor's nodes, so they're ignored by the other neighbor's nodes.
To communicate with someone other than my immediate neighbors, the communications will "hop" from relay to relay when that's most effective, or when the maximum hop count or maximum latency is exceeded, the routing switches to finding a "long distance communications" node.
In such a system, if an infection does break out and the system goes down... the worst case is that you "cut the lines" (discontinue communications from centralized, distant nodes) and purge the infection from one node at a time if you have to (and as a member of a corporate IT team... I've had to do so... too many times!) The first services to return to normal will be local nodes, communicating with other local nodes.
To Martin's other point about such mesh nodes using even more electricity... no, that's not necessarily the case either. If you're going to go to the trouble of putting the mesh node "up and in the clear", you may as well install the optional solar panel that's less than 1 foot square and simply plug it into the node. During the day the node is powered directly by the solar panel. At night the node is powered by the included battery or "local power" and/or goes into power conservation mode (slow down data rate, transmit longer, but fewer packets, etc.) Voila... not only have have you not made things worse (drawing even more from the power grid) but you've created a localized, self-powered, self-healing communications system. A minor side effect... since you're not using their services, you won't have to pay "The Phone Company" for communications to your neighbors - only if you want to get routed out to the Internet... at which point the idea of a Neighborhood-area Wireless Internet Serivce Provider changes the telecommunications paradigm rather abruptly.
Now... onto Nokia, Saving Of. I've never bought a Nokia phone; not because I don't like them, it's just that it simply hasn't worked out that way. But I would... in a heartbeat... and I'd pay pretty well for the privilege... and go to some trouble to get one (including a wait list if that were necessary...)
If...
And Only If...
Nokia started making phones that did Voice Over Internet Protocol over Wi-Fi ONLY. I have little use for a "combo" phone that combines "cellular" and Wi-Fi. If they did so, they'd blow away the competition in that market, which (to be charitable isn't much competition for Nokia at all. It's just that those "barely-compeitors" are providing that highly-desired product, and Nokia is not providing such a product.
Right now VOIP over Wi-Fi telephones are in their infancy... the equivalent of a human only a few minutes after being born. Nokia could own this infant segment and defend it handily if it chose to weigh in with such a product now. Think "Disruptive Technology." Think "Tipping Point." I'd rather have a Nokia VOIP over Wi-Fi phone. They understand battery life. They understand user interface. They understand distribution channels. They do accessories very well. But if Nokia doesn't get a VOIP/Wi-Fi (only) phone out quickly, and Uniden does... the explosive growth of VOIP over Wi-Fi will have been ceded to Uniden.
Now... tying it all together... what if all of those wireless mesh nodes provided Wi-Fi "roaming" for the VOIP/Wi-Fi phones throughout the neighborhood as well as within your house. It would be like do-it-yourself Nextel; (optionally encrypted) Family Radio Service (FRS) with repeaters. Such as system may well be all the communications system an small, isolated community would need (provide backhaul from a few satellite nodes). Developing nations could use this model. It's scalable (yes, wireless mesh is really that scalable; check out Timothy J. Shepard's MIT Ph.D. thesis). And... it's relatively robust, not depending on centralized resources merely to communicate effectively to those closest to you.
Steve Stroh
Copyright (c) 2004 by Steve Stroh. This article originally appeared on Corante / Broadband Wireless Internet Access.